In the 1970s, I used one of the first Automated Teller Machines (ATM). Once they started to gain traction, it was clear that banks would reduce staff and jobs would be destroyed.
While that is true, it missed the larger story.
Without the expenses of armies of tellers, it became inexpensive to open branches. There was a race to open branches everywhere.
Each of these branches had a smaller staff, but there were so many of them that there was (an admittedly small) net increase in jobs.
AI assistants perhaps double the productivity of programmers. Will half of the programmers in the world lose their jobs? Or will the reduced cost of software development enable the creation of so many new projects that there will be a net increase in programming jobs?
I honestly have no idea which will be the case. I don’t know that anyone else does.
This article was inspired by 80,000 Hours Podcast Episode 222: “2023 Mega-highlights Extravaganza.”
Until I can find a primary URL for it, I can offer these secondary links:
https://share.transistor.fm/s/b82e31d0
https://player.fm/series/80000-hours-podcast/best-of-2023-one-highlight-from-every-episode
