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If there was a 5% that the World Would End? (www.linkedin.com)

What would you do if there was a 5% chance that the world would end?

Snake eyes on pair of dice is about 3%.

Drawing a pair in poker (5 card) is about 5%.

Fours head coin-flips in a row is about 6%.

Three heads in a row

Let’s leave aside for the moment as to what particular thing you believe the chances are of something in particular ending the world, but you do believe it, what would you do?

In Katja Grace‘s Survey of 2,778 AI authors: six parts in Pictures, she summarizes some of the results of her paper, Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI.

The third takeaway is:

Median respondents put 5% or more on advanced AI leading to human extinction or similar, and a third to a half of participants gave 10% or more.

Perhaps that consensus of thousands of the bright people who think most carefully about AI is wrong. Perhaps not.

I am not asking whether we should believe that they are right, but rather asking what we should do if we believe them.

And if you don’t want to think about AI, pick Climate Change, Biohazards, Nuclear Weapons, and run numbers on the existential threat of your choice.

Dall-E — Another way for the world to end that isn’t a robot uprising

 

Dall-E — Was this caused by the robot uprising

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Posted by Russell Brand

Russell has started three successful companies, one of which helped agencies of the federal government become very early adopters of open source software, long before that term was coined. His first project saved The American taxpayer 250 million dollars. In his work within federal agency, he was often called, “the arbiter of truth,” facilitating historically hostile groups and factions to effectively work together towards common goals

 

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