Most people are really bad at prediction, estimation, and judgment in general. And most people are much worse at it than they think.
Fortunately, it is not hard or time-consuming to get much less bad it.
Open Philanthropy has made a free tool available — give it a try. It may start out as a humbling experience, but it is worth doing.
Our grantmaking decisions rely crucially on our uncertain, subjective judgments — about the quality of some body of evidence, about the capabilities of our grantees, about what will happen if we make a certain grant, about what will happen if we don't make that grant, and so on. judgments about