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Efforts to Improve the Accuracy of Our Judgments and Forecasts – Open Philanthropy (www.openphilanthropy.org)

Most people are really bad at prediction, estimation, and judgment in general. And most people are much worse at it than they think.

Fortunately, it is not hard or time-consuming to get much less bad it.

Open Philanthropy has made a free tool available — give it a try. It may start out as a humbling experience, but it is worth doing.

Our grantmaking decisions rely crucially on our uncertain, subjective judgments — about the quality of some body of evidence, about the capabilities of our grantees, about what will happen if we make a certain grant, about what will happen if we don’t make that grant, and so on.  judgments about

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